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Charts for June 14, 2008






Charts for May 1, 2008








Charts for April 28, 2008

A real change in trend would be signaled by a low below the lower broken line.


We're still waiting for the two breadth indicators (lower charts) to break above their moving averages.


Gold is hanging in there, but the downward slope of the 50-day moving average may be signaling lower prices in the near-term.

Charts for April 17, 2008

Homebuilders have rallied.  The 50-week moving average is about to turn up.


The interest rate on the 10-year Treasury bond has turned up sharply this week (green oval).  Note that in the past, after the rate crossed the 5% mark, the probability of a drop in stock prices rose (dashed vertical lines).  We have a long way to go before worrying about that.


Finally, here's a long-term view of short-term interest rates.  The market falls as rates fall, naturally enough.  The question is, where are we now, relatively speaking?  The last time rates fell to this level the market had already begun to rally.  The difference for us now -- a much steeper drop in rates and less elapsed time. 




Charts for April 2, 2008

A flag pattern that worked out perfectly -- declining volume and lower prices followed by a sharp spike up.



A Bullish Wedge -- declining prices in a narrowing band.  The probability is a break-out up.


Charts for March 31





Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Charts for March 24

Here is the S&P 500 Index you can buy -- the ETF S&P 500 SPDR, ticker SPY.   Note the fall-off in volume.


When the 20-day moving average is below the 50-day moving average, rising prices are less likely.  But the bounce you can see at the blue underscore is a positive sign -- if the average can get and stay above the 25% level.



The top chart shows the fear index -- it's in an uptrend and that's not good for stock prices.  Below it are the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.  Note how much stronger the DJIA was back at the August low (the green circle) compared to the S&P 500 (the red circle).  Drawing trendlines is subjective.  Bulls would draw the green trendlines; Bears the red ones.  Either way, price is far below the long-term moving average, and that's bearish.


A rising Yen is negative for stock prices.


The gold bulls predicted gold at  1,000 -- which it hit and then fell back sharply.  If you're bullish on gold, now is a time to consider buying.





Charts for March 14





Charts for March 12





If you were following the Primary Trend, getting out at around 1480 sure looks sweet right now.  Sure you missed getting out at the top, but at this point, does that really matter?



Only 17 of the 100 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 are trading above their 200-day moving average.  It's quite a waterfall.



Charts for March 7

Every rally in oil is matched by a drop in technology except for the period circled.



The high in bearish sentiment so far preceded the then-market low on January 22.  Today's action surpassed that low in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (today's 11,893 vs. 11,971) and the S&P 500 (today's 1293 vs. 1310).  Expect much more bearish sentiment in next week's survey.




Charts for March 5

Thanks to the smart folks at Bespoke Investment Group for pointing this uncanny coincidence out.





Higher interest rates will spell real trouble for those with adjustable rate mortgages.  Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.


Charts for March 4



Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Charts for March 3

The Yen is represented by the tan histogram and its moving averages are the red and blue lines.  The black line on the top graph is the S&P 500.  The second graph shows the steadily falling US Dollar.  The bottom graph is the Japanese stock market represented by the ETF EWJ.


Commodities are at all time highs.  If no pullback occurs, these high prices become support for even higher prices.



Charts for February 28

©2008 Andy Mayo. All rights reserved | legal | sitemap | updated 08.20.08